Episode 1470: Baseball's Busy Meetings
Date December 13, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about baseball’s busy week and the Giants and Marlins moving in their outfield fences, then discuss the Angels’ signing of Anthony Rendon, touching on Rendon’s greatness and similarity to Mike Trout, what the Angels still need to do to contend and their outlook for 2020, Shohei Ohtani’s probable workload, the Dodgers’ relatively uneventful week, what this week’s activity tells us about baseball’s free-agent market, how to talk about opportunity cost with free agents, and more. Then they answer one listener email about why more players don’t sign with Scott Boras and another that inspired a Stat Blast about baseball’s most similar players, and finish with brief banter about the Rays signing Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and the Yankees bringing back Brett Gardner. Topics * Anthony Rendon signing * 2020 outlook for the Angels and Mike Trout * Expectations and workload for Shohei Ohtani * Angels' attempts to sign starting pitching * Where do the Angels rank among MLB teams? * Dodgers quiet winter meetings * Comparing the 2019-20 free agent market to previous offseasons * New ways to analyze contracts * Importance of player fit with team * Scott Boras and the added value of a good agent * Identifying the most similar players * Recent player signings Intro Belle and Sebastian, "Lord Anthony" Outro David Bowie, "New Angels of Promise" Banter * Meg is back from the winter meetings, she reports having to cut several dinners short because of news that Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon signed. * The Marlins and Giants announced that they will move in the fences for the 2020 season. Oracle Park notably has not seen a spike in home run rate in recent seasons. * Increased standardization of ballpark dimensions Email Questions * "Jacob: Why would a professional baseball player not hire Scott Boras as his agent? It seems clear that Boras is at least as good as any other agent at maximizing players' salaries and maybe a lot better. I couldn't find any players truly addressing why they don't use Boras. Robinson Cano's statement about switching from Boras to Roc Nation Sports in 2013 provides little insight. Of course Boras can't represent every baseball player, but it seems like more of them should switch to Boras. Some owners and executives don't like him, but he still gets great outcomes for his players. He also has a reputation for helping players improve. It doesn't seem that he costs more than other agents. According to a 2001 LA Times profile, he then charged 5%, which is the industry standard. The primary reason I can think of to not hire Boras is that other agents are successful at cultivating relationships with players. Are many players too attached to their agents to make the obvious "business decision" of hiring Boras, as Nick Castellanos described it in April?" * Dennis: "I was wondering whether we know who the two most similar players in MLB history are according to Bill James' similarity score. Baseball-Reference does list the most statistically unique players of all-time (Pete Rose leads all hitters and Cy Young leads all pitchers) and by age but does not list the opposite. Is there any pair of players with over 1,000 IP or 3,000 PA who have perfect similarity scores of 1,000? If so, how many such pairs are there? If not, how many more seasons of baseball do we have to play before this comes true?" Stat Blast * Ben looks at player similarity data inspired by Dennis' email question. * Andre Thornton and John Mayberry are the most similar players with more than 6,000 PA. They have a similarity score of 964.8. * Ivy Andrews and Randy Gumpert are the most similar pitchers with a minimum of at least 1,000 IP. They have a similarity score of 988.3. * Patrick Corbin and Jaime Garcia have a similarity score of 983.7 but that is expected to decrease in coming seasons. Notes * Anthony Rendon signed with the Angels for 7 years and $245 million. Ben and Meg assume this means that Scott Boras will be seen more often sitting behind the plate at Angels' games. * Meg notes that players signing earlier in the offseason has an added benefit for fans. They are able to better know their team's offseason plans and get excited for the coming season. * When discussing free agent signings Ben uses the phrase "feet on the pedal". Meg reminds Ben, who doesn't know how to drive, that you drive using just one foot. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1470: Baseball's Busy Meetings * The Homogenization of Ballparks by John LaRue * The home run revolution has completely passed AT&T Park by by Grant Brisbee * Will the Giants finally have a 20-homer hitter this season? by Grant Brisbee * FanGraphs' home run park factors * Anthony Rendon Is Instantly Mike Trout's Best Teammate by Neil Paine * Anthony Rendon Is an Angel on the Infield by Ben Clemens * Rendon Signing Shouldn't Distract from the Angels' Pitching Needs by Tony Wolfe * Eliminating stupidity is easier than creating brilliance by Phil Birnbaum * Baseball Reference Similarity Scores * John Mayberry and Andre Thornton similarity profiles * Most similar player pairings Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes